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The new Public Policy Polling ("PPP") Arizona poll might help disprove the recent (national) Republican meme that mainstream polling outfits are overstating President Obama's support because they are under-sampling Republicans. Or, it might indicate that the GOP teeth-gnashing is having an effect on (some) pollsters.
Of course, the third option is probably more likely: that polling pools often vary in their party affiliations, because pollsters do not control for that because party self-identification is a varying element that often is at odds with how people are actually registered. (Personal experience confirms this: my mother often told people she was a Democrat, and was very surprised when I told her that she was actually registered as an "R".)
Current registration numbers show that 36% of Arizona voters are registered as Republicans, 30% as Democrats and 33% as something else. Yet, the new PPP poll has a pool consisting of 46% self-identified "R's", 29% "D's", and 25% "I's/others".
That is not only up from PPP's last Arizona poll three weeks ago (44-36-21), but it is even greater (for Republicans) than the percentages that Republican consultants at Higher Ground thought would be appropriate, when they bemoaned the national polling pools. (They thought Republican voters should make up 41-44% of any Arizona polling pool.)
Arizona's Politics has requested that PPP clarify its methodology and numbers, and will update as necessary.
Assuming that PPP does not control for party affiliation, it is instructive that 10% of the random pool would seem to identify as Republicans even though they may be registered differently. That is outside the 4% margin of error, and would seem to indicate that Arizonans are (currently) even more GOP-philic than the registration figures indicate.
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